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The Moorish Wanderer

The Dairy Of a Confused Moroccan Radical

Articles du blog

The Big Picture – Part 6

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This should be the last of “the Big Picture” series. My computations have reached a point where further effort needs to be fed more reliable figures – and get paid handsomely for it. All previous results assumed no government intervention in the economy; But just as the initial results did not factor in foreign trade, [...]

19 mai 2012 à 01:35:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Big Picture – Part 5

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evidence shown on my last piece points out to foreign trade as a major factor in output cycles and its growth. The initial proposed model has therefore to be readjusted accordingly, through the TFP process, and the relation it bears with the Balance of Payments; and so: where is the persistence parameters, and the cross-persistence [...]

16 mai 2012 à 22:46:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Big Picture – Part 4

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The standard RBC model has several major limitations that fail to account for proper results – in this case, a close match-up with summary statistics obtained after significant aggregates have been HP-filtered. The graph below for instance, shows a long-term comparison between actual GDP data, and RBC-generated output, the widening gap can be explained by [...]

14 mai 2012 à 01:17:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Big Picture – Part 3

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Looking back at the latest two posts, I must admit I had spent too much time trying to identify the deep parameters needed to build Morocco’s RBC model. But it was a blessing in disguise; indeed, when the standard methods of calibration are applied, the necessary structural parameters fit very well with the regressed/estimated results [...]

07 mai 2012 à 14:37:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Big Picture – Part 2

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Consumption smoothing is a reality in view of empirical data, and in this particular occasion, HCP’s own PRESIMO model is at faults in terms of specification and reliability on estimated coefficients, and the model specification themselves can be gainsaid as to their robustness. Consider their proposed model for household consumption: La variable la plus importante [...]

02 mai 2012 à 20:04:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Big Picture – Part 1

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Congratulations are in order: two days ago the Finances Ministry has answered a tweet of mine, on their website, no less! @MoorishWanderer Prière de trouver la réponse à votre question: tinyurl.com/cbjqf6y — Economie et Finances (@financesmaroc) April 26, 2012 Well, the answer wasn’t interesting beyond the usual, though I would give them credit for taking [...]

28 avril 2012 à 21:00:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Sideshow Consensus

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Government to the Right of it, Opposition and Civil Society to the Left of it; into the valley of superficial debates rode the lonely real issues of the economy. Or perhaps it serves both parties well to focus their energy on the debate on executive oversight over the public media network. It suits the conservative [...]

25 avril 2012 à 00:00:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

The Worst of Trickle-down, or Zombie Keynesianism?

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There is enough evidence to state that more than ever, big government is alive and kicking in Morocco, and not in a nice way; it has indeed broken with a 30-years trend in 2010; this means that some additional 5.8 Bn have been spent above the 50-years long trend, accruing to the 20Bn-worth exponential break [...]

19 avril 2012 à 17:00:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

How Will the Budget Look Like in 2016 and Beyond?

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166 Votes in favour, 49 against and 15 abstentions. Is this opposition going to fill the void left by PJD? Very unlikely. On the news front, Finance Minister is hellbent on keeping his pledge to bring the deficit down to 3% of GDP by 2016, and maintains his sunny forecast for an average growth of [...]

14 avril 2012 à 13:37:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

PJD, Morocco’s GOP

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the latest issue of TIME Magazine published an interesting article on Morocco’s conservative, Islamist-led government; quite an insight on how PJD spinners want to project their image overseas. (cc @PJDofficiel) Mustapha El Khalfi, Communications Minister and Government spokesman has spent some time in Washington DC as a legislative aide on Capitol Hill. In that respect, [...]

07 avril 2012 à 12:06:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

Budget 2012 – The Opposition Does NOT Strike Back

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But rather runs for cover. Yesterday the Budget and Finances Committee passed the first part of the Budget Bill untouched -hence rejecting amendments tabled by opposition members. 2012/03/29 : أنهت اللجنة دراسة مواد المشروع .(تم وضع التعديلات بشأنه بتاريخ 02/04/12 من طرف كل من الحكومة وفرق ومجموعتي الأغلبية والفريق الاشتراكي وفريق التجمع الوطني للأحرار وفريق [...]

06 avril 2012 à 15:46:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

Taxes and Politics – Why We Should Scrap VAT and Stamp Duties

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The principal line of defence in Mr Nizar Baraka’s own political narrative, along that of Mr Idrissi (his Budget pal) is that they are both a-political, technocratic officials recently (?) painted in Istiqlal or PJD colours. And in that sense, the broad lines of the Budget bill they have presented before Parliament tend to vindicate [...]

01 avril 2012 à 23:38:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

Five Score Years Later…

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“La Marche de l’Histoire” is perhaps the best Radio France Inter broadcasts – not nearly as great as its predecessor 2000 d’Histoire- but still; On March 9th Jean Lebrun invited Professor E. Berenson (NYU) to talk about Hubert Lyautey, conqueror, pacifier and first Resident General of the French Moroccan protectorate. you can download the entire [...]

31 mars 2012 à 13:48:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

Réforme Fiscale: Quand “Elargir l’Assiette et Baisser les Taux” Prend un Nouveau Sens

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Le choix des différents taux appliqués à l’Impôt sur le Revenu me semble déterminé plus par un raisonnement juridique qu’une démonstration économique – jusqu’à présent, je n’ai pas eu l’occasion de trouver un document du Ministère des Finances démontrant l’opportunité des choix de taux, ainsi que les revenus auxquels ces derniers sont appliqués. Mieux encore, [...]

24 mars 2012 à 12:06:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer

Pure Income Tax: a Rate for Everyone

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I suspect lawyers got the better of economists when it comes to the proper rates that apply to Income Tax rates. income brackets are determined somewhat arbitrarily -I haven’t come across any MINEFI stating otherwise yet- and all exemptions, tax breaks, loopholes and other regulations are yet to prove their usefulness, both as a policy [...]

23 mars 2012 à 22:14:00 Blog : The Moorish Wanderer